Brass Magnet
Founder's Club Member
This primary election and the strategy further down the road into the convention and general election is turning out to be very interesting.
As some of you know, Gary Johnson has dropped out of the Republican primary race to run on the Libertarian Party ticket. It's an intelligent move for him as he was being excluded from the debates and he'll definitely get more face time with the American people this way. It was especially obvious that the establishment didn't want two pro-liberty candidates espousing their views during the debates....after all, that might lend them credence.
Wasn't Gary's last debate when he said he'd pick Ron as VP? Anyway, as he was picked up by the LP, he encouraged all of his supporters to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries.
If he doesn't win the nomination Ron Paul will have still have some serious clout this time around. Iowa delegates were elected after vote during the caucuses which is really a glorified straw poll. Ron's supporters were asked to wear business casual and to stay after to try to get elected. It's almost a sure bet that a few of them did. This same low level strategy will take place in the other states as well, and his volunteers are very organized. In any case, if no singular candidate blatently runs away with the primary and everything stays pretty close, Ron is going to get a lot more delegates this time around including probably six from Iowa when they actually vote in the spring. With enough delegates, as I understand it, he could effectively veto a VP pick or push to get the Republican party platform changed and that doesn't even take into account the clout he will have by threatening to run third party. The establishment knows that an third party bid from RP will hand Obama the election on a silver platter. But what about the LP bid by Johnson?
During the primary, Johnson being on the LP ticket actually helps Paul. Johnson will keep endorsing Paul for the primary, effectively reaching some people that probably wouldn't have gotten the memo. The more votes and delegates Paul gets, the more clout he'll have. If Paul would win the primary, which is a long shot but not as bad of odds as it once was, a viable strategy would be to pick Johnson for VP. I'd like that one a lot as it would set up Johnson for a presidential bid later down the road. The more likely scenario though is that Paul get's enough delegates to cause a ruckus but not enough to get the nomination. At this point he's got a few options. Get the Republican platformed changed to advance his principles, influence the VP pick or drop out and join Johnson as a VP; bringing most of his supporters with him. This would be as close to a viable third party bid as we have had in many many years.
In the general, if a Paul-Johnson ticket, or more likely a Johnson-Paul ticket that didn't get enough electoral votes to win the presidency were instead able to get enough electoral votes to deny the other candidates 270 of the 538, more ruckus would ensue. Then it goes to the 12th amendment and more voting.
No matter how you shake it, this one is going to be interesting! No matter what happens, personal liberty, economic freedom, and a more humble foreign policy are going to get a lot of airtime and will keep shifting the sentiment. I can see a pro-liberty candidate getting in sooner rather than later.
As some of you know, Gary Johnson has dropped out of the Republican primary race to run on the Libertarian Party ticket. It's an intelligent move for him as he was being excluded from the debates and he'll definitely get more face time with the American people this way. It was especially obvious that the establishment didn't want two pro-liberty candidates espousing their views during the debates....after all, that might lend them credence.
Wasn't Gary's last debate when he said he'd pick Ron as VP? Anyway, as he was picked up by the LP, he encouraged all of his supporters to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries.If he doesn't win the nomination Ron Paul will have still have some serious clout this time around. Iowa delegates were elected after vote during the caucuses which is really a glorified straw poll. Ron's supporters were asked to wear business casual and to stay after to try to get elected. It's almost a sure bet that a few of them did. This same low level strategy will take place in the other states as well, and his volunteers are very organized. In any case, if no singular candidate blatently runs away with the primary and everything stays pretty close, Ron is going to get a lot more delegates this time around including probably six from Iowa when they actually vote in the spring. With enough delegates, as I understand it, he could effectively veto a VP pick or push to get the Republican party platform changed and that doesn't even take into account the clout he will have by threatening to run third party. The establishment knows that an third party bid from RP will hand Obama the election on a silver platter. But what about the LP bid by Johnson?
During the primary, Johnson being on the LP ticket actually helps Paul. Johnson will keep endorsing Paul for the primary, effectively reaching some people that probably wouldn't have gotten the memo. The more votes and delegates Paul gets, the more clout he'll have. If Paul would win the primary, which is a long shot but not as bad of odds as it once was, a viable strategy would be to pick Johnson for VP. I'd like that one a lot as it would set up Johnson for a presidential bid later down the road. The more likely scenario though is that Paul get's enough delegates to cause a ruckus but not enough to get the nomination. At this point he's got a few options. Get the Republican platformed changed to advance his principles, influence the VP pick or drop out and join Johnson as a VP; bringing most of his supporters with him. This would be as close to a viable third party bid as we have had in many many years.
In the general, if a Paul-Johnson ticket, or more likely a Johnson-Paul ticket that didn't get enough electoral votes to win the presidency were instead able to get enough electoral votes to deny the other candidates 270 of the 538, more ruckus would ensue. Then it goes to the 12th amendment and more voting.
No matter how you shake it, this one is going to be interesting! No matter what happens, personal liberty, economic freedom, and a more humble foreign policy are going to get a lot of airtime and will keep shifting the sentiment. I can see a pro-liberty candidate getting in sooner rather than later.
